Labor Day weekend traditionally marks the end of the summer movie season, and the start of the fall season at thebox office, with the weekend receipts usually suffering a sharp drop from the sweltering summer months. This year, only two new releases hit theaters over the holiday weekend, EuropaCorp’s action-thrillerThe Transporter Refueledand Broad Green Pictures’A Walk in the Woods, which actually debuts in theaters starting tomorrow, September 2. Both of these new releases will have to contend withStraight Outta Compton, which has taken the top spot for three weeks in a row, and, judging from the projections atBoxOffice.com, it may be a closer race for the top spot than you may think. Regardless of how close the race is, one thing is for certain: none of these new releases will open big, at all.
Straight Outta Comptonfaced some unexpected competition in the faith-based dramaWar Room, which exceeded expectations last week, coming in second place with $11 million, just behindStraight Outta Compton’s third-weekend total of $13.2 million. IfStraight Outta Comptondrops another 50% from last weekend, that would put it at $6.6 million for the weekend. Early tracking numbers forThe Transporter Refueled, starringEd Skreintaking over forJason Stathamas Frank Martin, put it at $8 million, but most movies have had a tendency to either overperform or underperform this summer, and I can’t seeThe Transporter Refueledhitting that projection, so it’s possible we could see it top out around $7 million. It’s possible that the top two spots could be separated by less than $500,000 this weekend, but we’ll have to wait and see.
While almost every movie decreases in its second weekend,War Roomactually has the potential to increase, depending on if TriStar expands this weekend from its 1,135-theater opening frame. Given the religious movie’s success, that wouldn’t be surprising, but we won’t know for sure until the exact theater counts are released in a few days. If the film does get a major expansion, it could make a strong push and take the top spot, but we’re not sure if that will happen. Despite the movie’s financial success, it hasn’t fared well with critics, earning just a 25% “Rotten” rating onRottenTomatoes.com. For now, we’re going to assume that it won’t be expanding, which means it will likely drop to third place with somewhere between $5 and $6 million. Then again, that was the same range I predicted it would open in last weekend, so, clearly, anything is possible.
The weekend’s other new release isA Walk in the Woods, which is tracking at $3.3 million in its first weekend in theaters, and it should open in sixth place. The film does boast plenty of star-power, withRobert RedfordandNick Nolteleading a diverse and talented cast that also includesEmma Thompson,Nick OffermanandMary Steenburgen. However, the demographic that would enjoy this film will likely be spending time with their own families over the long holiday weekend, instead of going to theaters to see two guys hiking through the Appalachian Trail.
NeitherThe Transporter RefuelednorA Walk in the Woodswill have super-wide releases, withThe Transporter Refueledopening in approximately 2,800 theaters, although we don’t have a theater count estimate forA Walk in the Woods. No critic’s reviews have been posted forThe Transporter Refueledyet, so we’re not sure how the nation’s critics will respond to thisaction-thriller.A Walk in the Woodscurrently sits at 50%, with 10 positive reviews out of 20 that have currently been posted.
The rest of the top 10 shouldn’t change much, except for blockbustersJurassic WorldandAnt-Mandropping out of the top 10, most likely for good.Mission: Impossible Rogue NationandNo Escapewill drop to fourth and fifth place this weekend, behindThe Transporter Refueled,Straight Outta ComptonandWar Room, withA Walk in the Woodstaking sixth place,Sinister 2in seventh place,The Man from U.N.C.L.E.in eighth place,Hitman: Agent 47in ninth place andThe Giftin the 10-spot. Naturally, there is no exact science to predicting box office takes, but we can’t see the rest of the field shifting too drastically.
Debuting in limited release are RADiUS-TWC’s dramatic comedyBefore We Go, the directorial debut ofChris Evans, who stars withAlice Eve, and Shout Factory’s vampire comedyBloodsucking Bastardsfrom the improv troupeDr. God, starringFran KranzandPedro Pascal. We don’t have exact theater counts forBefore We Goyet, butBloodsucking Bastardsis opening in 10 markets across the country this weekend, including Los Angeles, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, Minneapolis and Austin. Both films will also be available on various VOD platforms starting September 4 as well.
Looking ahead to next weekend, directorM. Night Shyamalanreturns to theaters with his new thrillerThe Visit, going up against Screen Gems' own thrillerThe Perfect Guy, starringMichael EalyandSanaa Lathan, and yet another faith-based drama, Samuel Goldwyn Films' 90 Minutes in Heaven. It will be interesting to see howWar Roomfares both this weekend, with a possible theater expansion, and next weekend, going up against a film with similarreligiousthemes. Check back on Monday for the official box office estimates from the long holiday weekend, and again on Tuesday for our predictions for the following weekend. Until then, check out our predictions for Labor Day weekend below. Do you think our picks are accurate? Or will we be way off when the estimates come rolling in?
